Over the last few years the general trend in the USA has stayed the same (so it seems), more separation between the “haves” and the “have nots”. Also a large delta between people’s interests which only cause the separation to widen over time. We took a look at our contacts and none of them sit around vaping marijuana, playing video games and doing hard drugs on a consistent basis. It has been interesting to watch and while we try to avoid dating/culture type posts it’s a good update once a while and this feels like a good day to do so.
General Framework: We continue to keep the same belief. There are really three items that need work for a male: fitness, social skills and money. If you have all three it is rare to see an unhappy person. The explanation is quite simple, if you only have two… something is always “bothering you”. For rich guys it is typically the dating market as they are either out of shape or socially awkward. For the in shape guys on the beach, it is typically their wallets. Lots of people are able to get two of them down and only a select few get all three. We can’t prove this last part, but, we think it is extremely tiring to get good at all three. So once a person gets two down, they try to make them “offset” their weakness in the third. Unfortunately it doesn’t work that way.
As a source of “motivation”, you don’t need to be amazing at all three as you should view your life as a mosaic. It’s better to be worth a couple million, be in shape with great social skills vs. being worth $10M+ but no real social skills or physical fitness. The reason why is that you never know what a person values so if your “product offering” is a mix of all three, your selection group expands. Also. Realizing that you’re not doing well in one of those categories requires self-reflection and awareness, another positive quality. Don’t listen to people who claim that one of them can be ignored, make sure you’re willing to take a step back from what comes easy to you (be it fitness or money or socializing) to focus on fixing the areas where you’re weak.
Current Cultural Issue: We see the same trend occurring, lots of young men/women are graduating with few opportunities. This results in panic attacks, a loss of purpose and a shift to questioning the “life path” everyone was told to go down. Even if you avoid going into debt to get degrees, the *shock* becomes much more apparent as you see Companies constantly looking for ways to cut costs and automate their work flow. This is combined with easy access to drugs and alcohol and constant complaining from adults who were not able to keep up with the times “back in my day everyone was on their own by your age!” It still amazes us to this day that three trigger points really tell you a lot about a person’s future: their college (if they went to a top university or were somehow able to avoid it due to intelligence/skills), their first career/job/business they start and of course the city they live in. If you gave us the answer to the three items listed you’d be able to predict with ~90% accuracy the next 5-10 years (financially). If they choose well in all three, it usually leads to a high quality financial life.
Either way, this leads to the same old issue we’ve seen over the last 5-10 years. The number of people with high paying jobs is small… the pool of people with little debt is even smaller… and the number of people being forced to live with their parents goes up. We don’t see this trend reversing any time soon and the separation between the haves and have nots will likely widen. In short, nothing has changed in terms of the “trends”.
What to Do: As usual this is an actionable based blog and we’re going to make some adjustments right now. The following are trends we’ve noticed from the younger generation (well the successful ones since those are the only ones we’re interested in monitoring). They do the following: 1) they tend to view making money as a game, most complain about it being “hard” but the younger ones view it as a game to improve at versus work, 2) they actually don’t drink much. The only ones who seem to drink are born to rich families and also landed a pretty high paying job. These individuals do spend a lot of time at concerts/raves etc. The ones who don’t have that to fall back on are not really partying a lot, we see them doing a lot more physical activities, 3) on that note, they are in shape since they are not out drinking and partying as much, 4) they already have two sources of income, we know some people who are only 23 with up to five sources of income… It sounds impossible but you’d be surprised at the range of businesses being spun up, 5) almost *all* of them admit to earning extra money while on the job – they are not delusional and realize no one is going to watch over their shoulder 24/7/365 and 6) their social skills are a tad weaker than their peers but you see them improve over the course of year. This one is a trend we picked up over 5 years, as they start out with little confidence and little time to improve. But. In 3 years or so they’ve gotten to standard skills and it seems to be the last item on the priority list – but still takes up the #3 slot in terms of time preference (money and health being the top 2). Simplistically, each person is following a similar path to Efficiency with different angles: some with the exact idea from our book, others with the real estate hook, some going full start-up and others working even harder than we could imagine to maximize their consulting/services revenue. All of these ideas work, none of them are “right” as long as the end-game worked out
What Not to Do: On the opposite side of the spectrum you can see the downward spiral lead to an impossible hole to climb out of: 1) believing that “hard work” can be avoided because they are smart and only need to put in a few hours to succeed. Not realizing that even billionaires worked insane hours in the beginning since it’s the “life tax” associated with success, 2) getting involved in a lot of drug/alcohol binges. Reduces the ability to operate the next day, make its hard to meet the right people and on top of all this if they don’t have the will power to work long hours, they definitely can’t stay off the drugs, 3) not taking advantage of down time, spending this instead on consumption/entertainment, 4) thinking the weekends are always “off days because they deserve them”… when in reality if you put the work in early every day (even weekdays) can become off days when you don’t feel like killing yourself and 5) constantly valuing the comfort zone of old friends. This one is probably a common sign, if their friends are all the same people they knew from college – something has gone terribly wrong (2-3 years after entering work force)
Updated Changes in The Overall Culture
The high level changes haven’t really moved much, what has changed is the way it is reflected in the dating market, social market and preferences. In a rare case we’ll talk about dating since it has been fascinating to watch.
Dating: Applications are still being used by guys who have their money straight. Naturally this forces them to bat below their “class” since they are a crutch for people with weak social skills. We have no doubt that the comment section will be filled with “it’s the same!” but we haven’t seen it and have yet to find someone who uses apps that dates “up”. The old saying is still true, you never trust a guy who cannot date up as it’s a sign for lacking at least one (if not two) of the three items you need to live a fulfilling life.
The other fun thing we’ve noticed is that *some* women have actually caught on to this whole cultural trend. For all the complaining we’ve seen about women on the internet, a lot of them have actually exited the constant hook up culture in a few sparse areas. You can tell who these women are as they are dating men who are around 5 years or so older than them (sometimes more of course) but from what we’ve seen, girls who are dating up have intelligently filtered out the constant hook up culture. To be clear here, the hook up culture is still the VAST majority. All we’re saying is that we’ve seen pockets actually figure this whole thing out an realize that they are not getting anything out of it. Generally, they are on the much more attractive side. So to emphasize, career focused women and hook up culture women are still extremely prevalent… We’ve just noticed a slight change which has actually expanded the pool of decent women (no one should be taking a previous drug and party addict seriously)
The last thing we’ve noticed is that the pool of younger adult men has become weaker. This is due to the continuing trend of lower high paying jobs and more competition. Many of them are being forced to live at home as well (reduces where they can afford to go out). The “recession generation” those that graduated in the 2005-2008 time frame are generally split apart. So there is a large gap here at this point and they are between 32-37 years old or so (we’re adding some wiggle room). If someone is living a good life and they are between these rough ranges they likely survived some terrible economic situations and really were better than most. On the flip side. The guys who got clobbered by the bad economic times are still playing catch up.
Social Market: Not sure how to phrase this but in terms of the “social market” you see a lot of people who simply gave up on life in general. What we mean by this is that the competition has gone up to get over the “snowball effect” and every year it just gets harder. So in the social market you can quickly figure out where a person is (socio-economically) by their views on hard work. If someone is in their mid-20s and downplays long hours… chances of crossing them off the list is high. If someone is in their mid-20s and agrees it plays a massive part then they haven’t given up on getting over the hump financially.
The social market or “social tells” have become so obvious that it hurts. You can almost figure out to the T who someone listens to on Twitter, YouTube, Instagram etc just by their comments. It has gotten to a point where we hear comments and know exactly what tweet/article they are referring to. And. They try to pass it off as original thought even though you are 100% certain it’s just a quote from someone else. Maybe this has always happened and we weren’t as aware. But. It happens almost every single day now. Someone will make a “smart comment” and you sit back and say (in your head of course) “that’s directly from someone else”… smile, nod, agree and move on.
Original thought consolidates which also consolidates the social market. The number of people with original thoughts is on the decline so these people are naturally drawn to one another. In order to recognize original thought, you have to be well read and read between the lines (this person is just someone who memorizes vs. this person is creating new connections). Over time the people who are actually making new observations all end up meeting one another down the line.
Preferences: This has probably been the most interesting change over the past ~5 years. Preferences have changed quite a bit. Definitely a bigger focus on being physically attractive as a stand-out trait for men as most are out of shape. Definitely a bigger focus on travel. Definitely a bigger focus on “experiences”. While one thing has stayed constant: if a girl can’t experience something it doesn’t exist to her (like the millionaire who eats lentils and rice). The typical person in their 20s is now more interested in the trip to France vs. the expensive handbag. Now if you become rich all these material items come back again since there is nothing to do (boredom, a topic we could cover but really only addresses the rich)
How to Benefit Off These Trends: There are several ways to improve your life to generally benefit. You can actually reduce your housing costs without a significant impact to your social life if you are willing to spend more on making your life an “experience”. You can avoid hearing the same thing over and over again by becoming well-read and avoiding people with unoriginal thoughts. You can also look for social tells to quickly filter out people who gave up on the process: 1) asking about effort and reward – to young people – delayed gratification etc. 2) asking about their views on earning money – if it’s “fun” or “annoying” is another big tell, 3) seeing what type of people they hang out with – if it’s the same people from 5-10 years ago it’s usually a horrible sign and 4) the classic tell on if they believe rich people are happy or sad… people who think rich people are unhappy have given up on getting rich and are looking for excuses to never make it.
Fun Predictions: 1) we will see continued dispersion between rich and poor, regular theme we have had, 2) in 5-10 years the dating market will actually swing away from hooking up as the generation above them passes down information that it did not work and was detrimental and 3) decline in young population in expensive cities, increasing status signal.
That’s a short summary. Also. We will have a Q&A on Sunday and will actually open it up to social questions for once since we took a lot of notes down on new trends we’ve noticed.
Thanks for another relevant article!
Crazy how accurate your observations are. I met with a wealthy man (multiple businesses, real estate) to pitch an idea for a solo concert of original music.
He liked it and said: “I’m open to doing things differently because that’s how I built my life and businesses.” (Do the opposite)
I really appreciated this: when I said I was the only person involved in my project, he said: “never say ‘just’ when talking about yourself.”
I’m still learning to adapt to a non-employee way of thinking. One day: big success with long hours and the next: total quiet and rest/recovery. I want to identify what is a waste of time more quickly so I can turn months into days.
Facts after facts lad.
The true secret in this life is to do everything “au contraire” than normies.
“2) in 5-10 years the dating market will actually swing away from hooking up as the generation above them passes down information that it did not work and was detrimental”
Expecting regulars to act logically and respond to feedback… lol
That’s kind of how we got here, unhappy women thinking that the key was “independence” we’ll see how it goes
Your Bartinders/Waitresses are feeling the financial squeeze and are getting fit and looking for a high status male.
It’s the entry level office girls right out of college with bad drinking habits/Social Media obsession that will wake up at 30 and be in a super tight spot.
Same goes for the have and have not males. 5 Years the bifurcation will be complete. Their is still time.
Yep.
Considering the fact that real estate has made more millionaires than any other economic endeavor in the world I’m surprised you guys don’t talk more about making money in that subset.
Ha we already covered it
Thanks for the clarification that we’re talking about “strong independent women who don’t need no man” as far as hook up culture is concerned. Because, high status men have always gotten girls and I don’t see that changing, nor do I want it to 🙂
For a second thought the commentary on hook up culture was a morality tale. Silly me.
Interesting article.
The new generation will be leaps and bounds ahead of us as we were in their age.
Let’s say that 10 years ago the internet became mass-consumer. Also, let’s assume the information back then was the same quality as it is today (it’s not).
Then if we were 20 back then, we missed at least 10 years of access to unlimited knowledge.
Imagine the knowledge these kids will have at their 20s with a 12 year history of access to all the knowledge.
The difference gap between generations will be huge.
Things are generally very interesting.
You overestimate the median person.
The tools/knowledge have always been available, but only benefits the individual if they seek them out and apply effort.
Majority still doesn’t understand that you can ask a question to google/youtube and find the answer. This is level 1.
These people aren’t unintelligent, so it’s something else… comfort, laziness?
“We see the same trend occurring, lots of young men/women are graduating with few opportunities.”
This creates a huge opportunity for entrepreneurs that can capitalize on selling opportunities to ambitious young people. For better or for worse, people that can sell dreams with resume writing services, options trading, courses on how to dropship products from Alibaba will make big money. It’s inevitable – these high margin markets will get even more saturated though.
Laughed out loud totally true
Everytime I visit this website I gain knowledge but my hatred of regular people becomes bigger. Need to work on my SN&A game because I have started using “middle class” as an insult
Awesome!
This concept of a mosaic is original and should not be underestimated.
Sometimes I get down as a near-eight-figure guy who hangs with solid nine-figure studs.
But thinking about it, none of them are in great shape and many can’t operate outside of their little world of startups or finance.
Thanks for the boost WSB 🙂
For many people it doesn’t make much sense to move to a tier one city (NYC, SF, LA, etc.). You could live your entire life in your hometown working as a plumber and STILL have a significantly higher quality of life than the average person in a tier one city.
This analysis even factors in people who would follow the efficiency career path. $1 million in 10 years in an increasingly high COL city versus $500k in 10 years in a low COL city such as Columbus, OH or Salt Lake City, UT.
$1 million dollars sounds better UNTIL you adjust for COL. $1 million will buy you a small shack in NYC. Whereas $100k can buy your family a small house in a low crime Des Moines, Iowa neighborhood in a good school district.
If you aren’t wealthy OR trying to become a financial person or banker, OR you are unable to land a high paying white collar position…. The high COL somewhere such as NYC will probably be a financial setback to your health & financial success.
You only go to tier 1 cities if you plan on being in the 1% otherwise it makes little sense. Getting to the 1% is way easier in a tier 1 city due to opportunities
If you our goal is to simply live a good life then yeah no reason to go to high COL cities
As someone who grew up country, I see tons of opportunity everywhere I go including smaller towns and cities in order to make it to the 1%. Many are just not in stereotypical white collar/high status industries found somewhere like NYC.
I still agree with your overall point however. After a certain level of income/scale it just didn’t make sense for me to continue living out in the cornfields where nobody could relate. The bigger the city = the more the possibilities of meeting/befriending/networking with the 1%.
If you are worth $200k by 30, you are in the 1% of your age group. Neither of you want to hear that but it’s hilariously true.
The reason for this is that most people have massive debt or bad spending habits. Student loans, credit cards, mortgages, car payments, taxes, and many more.
Stop overestimating the competition. You guys are living in a bubble. $1 million by 30 is not the top 1%. It’s the top 0.1%.
Crazy, 10x rule applies. Always set the bar 10c higher so you land where you want
I think what we see is that many 1%’ers on the coasts want the luxury lifestyle and the social status.
They would rather pay an exorbitant amount of money for a 1 bedroom Manhattan apartment than to live near working class heartland Americans who they consider uneducated peasants.
This idea that it’s so much “more difficult” to make it in the Midwest/South is completely ridiculous. I live in Nashville and there is wealth all over the city. We have more than enough opportunity here.
Through retrospection, I’ve found the same thing to be true. Living in a first-tier city, I start to view everything else as a downgrade and a sort of “cheat”.
“Why move with all my money to a low-cost of living place when I’ve worked so hard to establish myself here?” “Why go to where a place where the masses are even duller than usual”
I’ve got mixed thoughts on the matter and can’t definitively say which one is better.
While this is technically true, would we not recommend everybody to go to a first-tier city at least for a bit?
1) Freeing yourself from the comfortable and familiar engages your mind – it makes you think.
2) Exposing yourself to a myriad of opportunities opens your eyes (previously, you may think that none exist)
3) Forces you to operate faster and more efficiently
4) Lower-quality lifestyle makes you appreciate the higher one better
5) You’ll always be thinking of “what if I went to that city”
With #5, I’m not sure if you realize it. People out in the heartland have a serious hatred for east coast/California type lifestyle and culture.
If you believe leaving NYC for Iowa is a downgrade, than I seriously recommend you come visit my state of birth. Iowa is a clean and affordable place to live with low crime, low poverty/corruption, and a strong sense of community. Essentially the exact opposite of NYC.
This cultural divide between the coasts with the heartland is going to cause a lot of serious problems in the future.
Makes sense.
“The social market or “social tells” have become so obvious that it hurts. You can almost figure out to the T who someone listens to on Twitter, YouTube, Instagram etc just by their comments.”
This is spot on. I’ve lost track of how many people I’ve met who claim to be experts just because they heard something on the Joe Rogan podcast and are walking around simply regurgitating what they heard.
Same theory could be applied here when someone read this blog and suddenly they act like they are already millionaires or something.
Just can’t be it. They absorb the knowledge on face value but that’s not sustainable or heathy in long term.
And after they realised the truth, it’s real painful for those “have not” and forced to pay the due to catch up.
These types of post are always the best. Really helps us maneuver the constantly changing world.
Society in America is bifurcating into two camps(classes).
On the Male side is the Have and Have Nots.
On the Female Side is the Civilized and the Animals.
The Civilized Females are quickly wising up to the fact their situation as an entry level social media marketer, or bartender/waitress is a fragile and frightening future. These girls hit the gym, go out during the day, and pay no heed to the have nots. The Animalistic girls simply chase the biggest and best fitness/genetics “have not” male they can through apps/bars. Only to find themselves with either a kid, or washed up at 30.
So There will be drastic changes in the next 5 years.
You can put male into have and have nots, and girls into animal/civilized in about 2 seconds and talk to/adjust your behavior according ling.
Very good post. I’m one of those who used apps and did date down using tinder.
Still working on so called social skills. Also doing acting classes (drama), hoping it will help somehow.
Interesting post though I do think that hookup culture is here to stay, as a man if you can get a lot of sex then you prefer that over a marriage and sexy women will always have men chasing them.
There is one thing I wanted to comment on since I noticed you guys did an NYC vs San Fran post a while ago, it is the rise of “tech culture” and tech cities. I agreed with you guys almost 100% on how much San Francisco and its people suck but the problem is, they are actively invading as a result of the big boys in tech opening offices in other cities.
I would be interested to see how this plays out but I am noticing even in some of the better night clubs in NYC you are getting more and more people The Bay Area flooding in. As you know, they are not going to change their ways given their pompous attitudes so I wonder for how long NYC remains the place to be for a young bachelor.
Austin is suffering here but I am feeling it get to NYC now too where you see less supermodels out at the nightclubs and more of the stereotypical San Francisco crowd of overweight women and Silicon Valley guys. I mean it is scary to think about how San Francisco culture can take over the world.
It’s 100% here to stay, we’re focused on high quality women (attractive) which likely declines in 5-10 years.
This is why the girls who are staying in shape and trying to look good are always the ones actually monitoring/looking for higher quality guys. Has been a clear trend, particularly at places on Sunday/Monday/Tuesday when “industry nights” are popular
Fair, I do see a lot more 7s in the hookup culture.
As for my other point, I do think it is really scary how the rise of the tech scene throughout the country may be giving birth to the spread of San Francisco people and San Francisco culture. Will be interesting to see if NYC endures and retains its quality or if it goes the way of Austin.
3 trigger points really tell you a lot about a person’s future:
1) their college
2) their first career/job/business they start
3) city they live in.
If you gave us the answer to the three items listed you’d be able to predict with ~90% accuracy the next 5-10 years
Curious…. what would you predict if the 3 answers were: 1) Big Ten, 2) Investment Banking, 3) Chicago
Joey,
Chicago is going to blow within 10 years. I predict the feds will bail Chicago. Pension crisis, rising minimum wage (stealth tax), people are leaving, and rising crime. Look at the Chicago Teachers Union! I don’t know who to blame but the taxpayers are the ones who will get shafted.
I think the loss of purpose and a period of existential crisis in young adults will be a huge factor in the future. Since God is dead and with the growth of feminism, modern man are in search of a soul…