Many people are concerned about the future as the physical realm is changing more in a year than it has changed in the past decade. People are working from home, commute times have dropped and commercial real estate prices are falling off a cliff. While this is causing a lot of short-term pain, we’d argue that the long-term is brighter than ever. Virtual reality, crypto currencies, and remote work allows for a new digital economy to be born (not limited to physical space).
A More Digital World: Right now, kids are spending more time on their computers than they spend outside. Back 40 years ago, kids would spend a lot of time in the sun playing sports. Instead, they now compete with digital products (video games) and interact on their smartphones/computers/tablets.
As Darwin coined… This is a game of “survival of the fittest”. In the future, the economy is going to be more digital in nature since virtual reality opens up for worlds that are even more complicated and interesting than the physical one we live in today. Therefore, new businesses that we cannot imagine today will be extremely profitable in the future.
Here are some simple hints based on what is already happening if we look at crypto currencies alone. While everyone is looking at the recent Square announcement (purchasing $50M in bitcoin) we feel that it’s right/justified to give everyone an update on the other changes.
Decentralized finance: We covered this part of the ecosystem in basic terms in a prior post. Essentially, everyone is able to loan money in a peer-to-peer fashion. The loans are currently collateralized which seems to be a stick point for many individuals. Collateralized loans are safer for the lender as they are able to pick up the collateral if the loan isn’t paid back or the price of the collateral drops below a certain level (too close for comfort). We strongly recommend people look into this space.
Non-fungible Tokens: While most are focused on a few select currencies, artists are creating digital products that are “one” in nature. Imagine a Mona Lisa type painting and having only one original copy of it. While you could make fakes (there are many fake paintings in the world), there is only one original. The use of non-fungible tokens allows a digital artist to create original pieces that cannot be replicated as they are protected by code. We’re keeping the technical jargon out of the equation in this post so it is easier to understand. Artists can now create digital images that are rare.
Digital Property Rights: Over the past 20-30 years, digital items were easily replicated and sent around for free. There was no way to claim a “right” to anything beyond a website. This is now changing. If we can protect photos/images it is only a matter of time before other items can become protected. Think of a digital pet, a digital night club and a digital trip to Europe. It feels like “science fiction” however the technology we have today is making this a more and more likely scenario on an annual basis. Once virtual reality/augmented reality becomes high quality, the difference in feel will become non-existent.
Zooming Out: Take a step back, if the above appears to be complicated… that is the opportunity! It means that there will be a large learning curve as we build out a new digital economy that is separate from the physical economy. We’ll need money to transact, individuals to explain how the digital economy operates and new structures/organizations to solve any disputes. If you are an artist/musician this is even better for you because it means you gain more control of your revenue streams/value capture.
What does this new reality look like? The real answer is no one knows for sure. Back in the late 90s, no one would have predicted the smartphone, uber and millions of software companies that exist today. What we do know is that the market opportunity is probably in the tens of trillions of dollars. Why? Simple. If virtual reality becomes equivalent to reality (feel and atmosphere), you’ve quite literally created a brand new world. This is extremely similar to finding a new planet where humans could live.
Some Predictions: This wouldn’t be a fun post if we didn’t attempt to visualize the virtual world. So please laugh, enjoy or think about the following potential consequences.
Streaming Money: In the virtual world, assuming digital currencies are the future, this means you would no longer be paid on an “hourly basis” you could be paid based on a running meter like filling a gas tank. If you’re helping company B do any task in the virtual world, it automatically fills your account balance as you’re working and shuts off when you take your breaks. This is great for transparency and reduces positions where money is being paid out for no apparent reason (there are millions of these types of jobs in major corporations).
Museums & Pets (yes pets!): One clear growing segment is non-fungible tokens, as mentioned above. Since we know that humans prefer scarcity (expensive art, rare sports cards, diamonds/gold etc.). it means that these rare digital items should have value. The big collectors could then create digital museums, digital collectables and rare digital pets.
While this also sound sci-fi, it did happen for a brief period of time in the mid-late 90s. We’re really dating ourselves here, but back in the mid-late 90s there was a popular digital pet named a “Tamagotchi”. While the fad did eventually die (for numerous reasons), this becomes a lot more realistic if everyone is interacting in a virtual world. Instead of having a virtual dog, you could have a virtual dragon/mystical creature that is rare/expensive. If this sounds unlikely, we’d recommend looking at the number of virtual items purchased for video games alone (it’s a billion dollar industry).
Concerts/Scarce Events: We had a small version of this occur due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the future will be a million times more detailed/interesting. A popular rapper/artist would no longer need to travel across the globe for every performance. They could host a virtual conference and have people pay for entry into their virtual concert room. Sounds extreme? Well… Travis Scott held a virtual concert using Fortnite that had over 12 million attendees.
Transparent Predictions: On the internet you have millions of fake screen shots, fake stock price returns, fake “I called it” proclamations. In the virtual world you could create a transparent system so all predictions/failures can be verified and checked without any ability to alter the time/date. We already see a small portion of this on Twitter. Since you cannot alter it, people with good prediction skills end up getting some traction. We say some, as it’s difficult to go through hundreds of thousands of tweets to find out if the person is accurate or not. In the virtual world, this would be transparent and easy to check! So if you’re good at predicting the future/major events you can look forward to a much brighter future as you can charge for your skills later on. For those that are unable to produce consistent results, the “jig is up” and you’ll lose trust rapidly.
Increased Autonomy: This is another major benefit. In the past the game of “scale” was to add headcount. This made sense in the industrial era. Companies want to prove that they are growing. They want to prove that they are adding headcount. Unfortunately, the is a skill-set for the physical realm not the digital realm.
Back in the 90s, you had to have a large organization to generate large amounts of revenue. In the 2020s, it is clear that you can build $30-50M+ annual revenue businesses with a handful of people (or less!). This is an amazing opportunity for anyone with a high IQ and limited resources. The resource constraint goes away since digital transactions will have limited friction.
Since you can generate millions of dollars as a solo organization (or a small number of people), the amount of self-sufficiency you receive is also higher.
Lower Barriers: Are you of the belief that the protesters are right? Are you of the belief that they are wrong and a problem for society? Guess what? It doesn’t matter in the virtual world! If you make your product in the digital realm, no one even needs to know what you look like. This is extremely similar to the affiliate marketing industry where your ad/copy skills are the product. No one knows who made it behind the computer screen. So if you were worried about racism in any way shape or form, this becomes a non-issue as no one will know who you are anyway.
As a side note, to be entirely race and gender blind, everyone should simply be a string of numbers/letters on a screen “298ij77sd76isj767so”. This would make it impossible to discriminate based on any physical attributes. So? Both sides of the debate should be happier. If you believed that XYZ race had an edge or that XYZ race was being helped for no reason, both of these issues are solved instantly.
The Downside of Responsibility: If you are confident in your skills and abilities, the above should sound absolutely amazing. You’re paid based on what you are delivering. There is no middle man. There is no racism. There is no physical limitation (since no one can tell). And. You don’t even have to work for an organization.
This is also a huge hit to people who were rent-seekers (adding no real value and simply doing nothing at work). This is a big negative because they cannot fake value by knowing the “right” people anymore. You’re flattening the access to clients/customers/consumers. Therefore, be extremely wary of people who are negative on the future (and technology) as they are announcing *publicly* that they are rent seekers in their current positions.
Strange Post: We realize this is a strange post for this website given the prior content but we needed to put it out there. Most are worried about the current state of the “old economy” but a new one is going to come. It will not only show up, but it will show up extremely quickly. Instead of being afraid of new technology it is always best to embrace it and be “early”. If you’re early, the rest will take care of itself.
If you want to learn more about the future we strongly recommend reading up on the following topics: 1) smart contracts and decentralized finance, 2) non-fungible tokens and decentralized organizations, 3) Virtual reality and augmented reality, 4) electrification of cars and batteries in particular – your home will eventually become a self-sustaining entity with a large battery!, 5) self-driving vehicles and drone delivery systems and 6) 3D printing capabilities.
Now that we’ve gotten this out of the way we’d love to hear about any other new items that are likely going to be developed in the virtual world. We’ll delete all negative comments saying this “won’t work” as we prefer to block pessimists who refuse to read and self-educate. But. If you have an interesting idea for the virtual world or more digital future we’re interested in hearing about it.
Newer Readers: For those that are unfamiliar with our blog we have three high quality products in order: 1) Efficiency, 2) Triangle Investing and 3) Spending for Maximum Return. In order, you learn how to make a good amount of money (a million liquid within 10 years or so), how to correctly invest it and finally how we’d avoid blowing it all with intelligent spending and PED use to improve quality of life. We hold Q&As 1x a month for purchasers only.
https://www.bbc.com/news/disability-47064773
This is a great article from 2019 that covers a kid with a rare muscular dystrophy condition. The kid lost the ability to walk and eventually couldn’t leave his room. With all his time, he basically lived out as normal a life as possible through his World of Warcraft avatar. He even met a “partner” and made close friends through a clan he joined.
This article should get everyone’s head turning about what the future will look like. With advances in VR/AI/Bandwidth, the virtual world is going to be much more appealing to the average person. The level of meritocracy we will have is more than anyone can imagine now. Not just race, but gender, attractiveness, height, disabilities. All these excuses go out the window. Anyone can compete in the future VR talent marketplace. Better be ready with extreme talent or work ethic.
Young people need to realize that the next frontier to conquer is *digital* value. Bitcoin/Crypto is just the first step. There’s all kinds of opportunities to digitally disrupt the physical world.
Why pay for an office when you can have an interactive VR environment that allows you to collaborate in ways never thought possible? Why pay 60k for college lectures that haven’t changed in decades when you can experience a VR course that shows you the French Revolution in first-person?
As a rule of thumb, digital value > physical value going forward.
Great summary.
Ego death and teaching yourself will become necessities.
You cannot have an ego if you are to reinvent yourself constantly.
The most important things to learn will be increasingly unteachable (esp. given speed of change).
If someone lacks extreme talent/work ethic, a possible avenue is to become a caregiver to 65 year olds (revolutions in biotech might make the upper bound irrelevant).
1. Once you are in virtual space a service can model your life (in virtual space) based on your current actions, habits.
If the virtual space details out the steps to achieving a goal, you remove a huge barrier to inactivity: not knowing what do to.
This could be a subscription service that maps your life for you.
2. Merging of neural-link type tech and virtual space. Once your brain has an interface with virtual space you can create in virtual space on command with your thoughts.
I need to generate a draft, write an email, scope a project, and hire a worker. Boom done.
3. The entire ready player 1 movie. That will become reality. All in a positive way.
4. “Minecrafting” as a skill. In the future, some jobs will involve “building” digital spaces like workers build physical scapes now.
You guys are describing the sovereign individual. It’s so exciting, I hope to see that in my life time!
-Alex
Insightful post just to add to the points you write about WSPs.
Combine future trends like immersive Digitalization, block chain technologies with whats is innately human.
Look at live casino gambling (not Draftkings, but Evolution gaming ticker EVO:SS) for example. Also people need to be loved ( Instagram, onlyfans) what services will be there in VR space? People are going to eat like cavemen but move even less…which healthcare niches can profit, can you profit on rehab or digital detox. Why not buy a cabin in the middle of nowhere and sell the idea of a digital dextox?
There is more. Look into property technology.
The very nature of how we live and “go to work” is changing. Before real estate owners and operators acted as “Rent collectors”. Today, because COVID-19 showed us that work from home is a viable alternative than going to the office combined with boom in Industry 4.0 tech applied to cities and buildings as well as the growth of WeWork, it means that new models such as “Space-As-A-Service” are emerging in order to make your workplace more attractive than working from home. Essentially RE operators/owners are going from “rent collectors” to “service providers”.
The implications of Space-As-A-Service focused on 1); optimisation and utilisation of space using IoT/IP camera tech to increase NOI pr m2, 2); increased focus on well-beng and building “health” and 3); offering services unrelated to rent collection (e.g access to mobility solutions as an add-on to your lease) that are hyper-targeted towards the main segment of that particular building will have implications for CRE valuation…
Furthermore, some very smart people are looking into tokenisation of real estate. This means the very nature of how real estate assets is traded may change. First barrier of entry will be much lower, so RE investment will be democratised, secondly it allows for RE to valuated based on demand/supply and not through appraisal by an intermediary and thirdly RE assets will in turn become much liquid and volatile.
So many changes happening to RE that it is insane. Also consider implications of mobility solutions/logistics such as drones on RE. For an example, I think future RE, flat-roofed with apartment buildings with easy access may be worth more than apartments without a flat roof because how else will Amazon drones be able to efficiently deliver goods at a large scale? Same goes for charging stations for electronic self-driving cars.
Some good reading material:
https://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/research/centres-and-initiatives/oxford-future-real-estate-initiative
https://www.propmodo.com/space-as-a-service-the-trillion-dollar-hashtag/
Far future, tech+economic inequality leads to bottom class of men pulling out of dating market to spend their universal basic income on virtual girlfriends and VR gears. I suppose girls will aspire to join some technocrats harem.
Global increase of hikikomori and NEETs.
I agree with a lot of what you are saying for sure. Even though I am betting on everything that you’ve mentioned, I am curious if virtual reality can really replace the physical world. Now, if you have nothing going on outside of virtual reality than yeah I can get what your saying.
But I wonder how possible it will be to replace the senses of touch, feel, and smell with virtual reality. For example. Can dating an imaginary girl on a computer screen really feel the same as dating a woman in real life? Does it really provoke the same feelings? Especially when you can’t even kiss her or touch her in any shape or form. This applies to other areas of life too.
We are not saying physical realm goes away we’re saying economic activity becomes virtual and Physical realm is largely
Run by code/robotics.
I can usually “feel” stuff in dreams (smell, taste, feel). So if it’s possible for a human brain to “recreate” sensations when a sleep, maybe it’s possible to “force” it to do so in VR while awake.
“Can dating an imaginary girl on a computer screen really feel the same as dating a woman in real life? Does it really provoke the same feelings? Especially when you can’t even kiss her or touch her in any shape or form.”
Ever heard of only fans?
If you are successful then the real world will always beat the virtual world. No argument there. But when you are creating a product sometimes you need to see the world though the eyes of the average person. A dude with no money and no social skills is happy to have a girl interact with him virtually because in real life he has no chance.
The virtual nightclub is a good example of this too. Once VR gets good enough and you can recreate a real life nightclub in Paris, or New York, people will rush and pay for it, because in real life they will never experience, so this is good enough for them.
Here’s what we do:
1. Make a physical robot that is self-repairing and self-replicating
2. Can survive hot/cold/extreme environments so it can survive in 95% of the known
environments in the solar system
3. Upload it with people’s individual DNA (they already send this info to 23&Me, so
that won’t be a problem getting it)
4. Build into the robot’s instruction to spread and replicate that DNA, at any cost
necessary.
5. Tell people “we uploaded a drone with your DNA and it can survive anywhere in
the galaxy. For $60,000 we can send it to Mars to start colonizing.”
6. Do you want to send the robot with your DNA to Mars or pay for a year of your
kid’s college?
This company will be big.
It will be interesting to see how much bigger the market for 3D printed footwear will grow and whether or not you will ever need to set foot (pun intended) in a retail store much less purchase standard size shoes again.
If companies can figure out how to print a complete shoe, then it would most likely eliminate the need for contract manufacturing overseas making it all about licensing the IP (i.e. designs) and perhaps some printer locations in key shopping districts to showcase the technology. It could also allow individual designers to do their own thing:
3D Printed Footwear to Generate $4.2 Billion by 2025 – 3DPrint.com | The Voice of 3D Printing / Additive Manufacturing
https://3dprint.com/271999/3d-printed-footwear-to-generate-4-2-billion-by-2025/
Fun anecdote on the concerts/rare events point…Look to the streaming industry in China today.
There’s a hobby industry in where people will buy the most expensive front-row tickets to a concert (think a sold out stadium boy ban/girl group). Rock up with a 360 degree gopro and a high quality recording mic. Stream the event from their phone. Pre-Sell access to the stream to friends/social media for $20USD. Sell a hundred of these or so…you can do the math on a $500USD concert ticket (worst case, scalp the ticket for resale)
Not possible without 5G mobile bandwidth and China has been there for a while.
Would you consider yourselves to be more bullish on ETH than BTC in this case, with the potential of DeFi/NFTs and whatnot possibly reaching millions of end users? (Also a side note is that ETH is more regulator-friendly whereas due to its totally decentralized nature BTC is becoming increasingly a target of regulators – BitMex, FCA, etc.)
VR videos is already a big deal in the porn industry, and I think this trend will continue as more people will not be able to find a partner due to the lack of social skills in a digital world. Plus the porn itself will be hyper realistic.
This might already have been touched upon, but virtual personal trainers and gym sessions will quite likely be a thing.
Top tier pricing if the customers want detailed feedback (ex. ‘twist your right hip a little more and place your right foot 2 inches further behind’).
Help for dating. How to maximize your dating profile.
Also, IRL social training. With the economy and, in essence, life moving online, many people will quite likely need a ‘digital detox’, that was referred to elsewhere. But also social training so they know how to interact.
In terms of ‘social training’, this will be particularly necessary for the dating scene. Young boys will hardly know what to say or do to attract a girl.
Also, and surprisingly, perhaps this will be to the best for the environment. More online and virtual presence means less CO2 emissions and human presence out in nature.
Thus, a bigger potential for wildlife parks and preservation.
I think 2020-2030 will blow our minds in so many ways.
Just spent a day hiking in beautiful mountains along a river. Fresh air, silence except for chirping birds, sunshine and physical exertion.
I feel sorry for the lives wasted sitting in front of screens.
Right?
It’s great that the kids growing up can ‘experience’ the French Revolution from their bedrooms, but can they experience genuine friendships and the same sense of physical connectedness from their bedrooms?
But in this coming future, that question doesn’t matter. It’s all about Efficiency. No care for how you ‘feel’. And if you do ‘feel’ anything, you better feel positive and never say anything negative about technology or else you’ll be censored and restricted.
This is all more motivation for you to become rich so you have the option to continue living your life offline.
I have some amazing news for you my friend!
You can do both!
I am an affiliate marketer & my work life is in front of a screen.
In my free time I also like to climb mountains & put myself into nature as much as possible.
You CAN separate your work life & your personal life.
Future prediction, prostitution becomes legal and we become normalize about the stigma surrounding it. Someone creates an Uber type app to sell your services part time, they collect data and contract tracing of STD gets better to the point that STDs become eradicated. Online porn industry once thought too big to fail topples over.
This reminds me of the movie ready player one.
Just a thought, We don’t even need to spend time and effort getting rich as we can just do rich people things like drive Lambos in VR and be average in real life😊
To your point, California banned the sale of gas cars starting in 2035. However, California currently has rolling blackouts which would be made much worse by adding millions of cars to the grid. The virtual world is not self sustaining, but requires energy inputs from the physical world. What is difficult to reconcile is that you acknowledge those who follow your advice are Not of the general population, but posts like this require the common man to adopt your way of thinking.
Reminds me of that scene in the movie Inception — where poor, sick and old people patronize “Internet cafes” to be plugged into a constant dream state for a nominal cost. As income equality worsens, more and more people will continue to lose interest in their physical realties.
Interesting post, but I think you are over-estimating the general desire to work from home or online. Yeah, people have been working remotely for the duration of the pandemic, but in my perception, a huge percentage of them *hate* it. They want to go back to the office, to the physical world, and won’t quietly just sit at home.
So, I’d bifurcate your prediction: there will be two big trends to capitalize on coming out of this pandemic:
1) online/VR/remote (as you mentioned)
2) outdoors, offline, “real world”
I can imagine how many people virtual reality will take away from society and it will truly be a test of who can resist temptations to be a producer.
Think of sex dolls, VR porn, and even creating a reality for yourself where you are with any woman you desire. I cannot think of most men now wanting to go out and socialize or produce anymore due to that strong temptation being there. People complain of porn addiction now, imagine how much worse it is going to get. America will go the way of Japan with all the herbivores.
What this means is less men out and about, a lot of lonely women, and some interesting trends. I can only imagine Jezebel writers and their articles for the future.
Great article.
I think about a lot of these topics all the time.
The movie Ready Player One really got my mind thinking of the sheer amount of possibilities that will arise.
Really enjoyed this.
Sounds like you guys are familiar with non-fungible tokens (NFTs) but thought I’d drop this beginner resource for anyone looking to learn:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQpHz_Z7PKY
Interview with a guy who’s big in the NFT space.
Sounds crazy but there are people who are making 5-6 figures a month selling digital art, which to the untrained eye, just looks like random .jpgs and .gifs (but can’t you just copy + paste??)
To add to this category are the digital pets/collectibles you mentioned, music (soon thanks to platforms like Audius.co), and more.
For anyone looking to get started in a career or make a change, crypto/digital realm is a good bet since no one is really an “expert” yet. It’s easy to get established quickly
Thanks for your excellent posts as always.