We predicted that Donald Trump would win the presidency and here we are. Over a year ago we laid out large sums of money into online gambling websites and in addition, leading up to the election, shorted the hell out of the Mexican Stock market.
While we have nothing against Mexico or its people, in fact we love some of their cities, the writing was on the wall (double entendre on purpose). This election cycle has proven once again that people are not rational creatures, emotion drives all decision making and you will incur a financial gain if you can remain unemotional when it comes to money. We’ll highlight a few items.
1) Free Dinner from Financial Samurai: Our friend Sam took the stance that people were rational creatures and we bet a dinner as seen from the below exchange. Our quick Twitter interaction summarizes the difference in opinion quite simply really (back in December):
There should be no doubt in anyone’s mind after this election that people are not rational. If there is, we suggest a review of the entire election and the turning points which were all based on emotion. We haven’t collected our dinner yet but we will soon and he has graciously paid the $100 wagers to the individuals in our comments section.
Everyone who bet against the Donald is taking that L train for commuting purposes at this point.
2) Unfolded as Expected: For those that were following our Twitter handle, we sporadically made comments around the election and noted that Trump would take a large hit in October followed by a win in November. That is exactly what happened. The reason why? Elections are emotional. Each camp has their own special guns set up for the end and we know there would be a whopper coming. The problem was simply in the timing of the information, too early and too much time for Trump to recover (he did).
The two parties (Trump and Clinton) both know that the election had nothing to do with rational thought. They had their game plan and bullets, however, Trump is simply too crafty.
3) We Let Others Do the Work: As we stated in our original post, from a financial perspective we did not care who wins. While this sounds like an oxy moron since we wagered a large sum of money on his election, we were talking in broader strokes. The presidency does not determine a person’s ability to succeed. YOU determine YOUR ability to succeed.
We didn’t bother getting too involved in the election, we sat back and let the heavily involved run the show. As long as we got our money that is all that really mattered.
Importantly, while this may feel like a “complete overhaul” of the system, we think that would be a stretch. Yes it will have an impact on our culture over the next 4 (we think 8) years, but the same winners will be the same winners. As the saying goes “If we took all the money in the world and divided it equally, the same people would become rich over the next 100 year cycle”.
To reiterate, if you believe you have a winner, you always let others do the work so you can focus on more important tasks. The stage has been set so its time to move on.
4) Being Humble is for Idiots: You heard it here first. Wall Street Playboys is saying that humility does not lead to money. Don’t be humble when you’re trying to *Market Yourself*. The only time you should be humble is when you are in the company of someone largely superior to yourself. You get no brownie points for insulting clients or a person with more weight than yourself.
With that one caveat out of the way, being humble will cause you to *lose* money. If you want a good example look at professional sports. The ones who are louder and more exciting generate more attention, more endorsements and a higher percentage of people in the seats (filling the stadium). If you’re attempting to get attention, being silent and nodding your head is not going to get you anywhere. You need to create noise, don’t be shy. You can always temper it down when the situation changes.
5) We Even Predicted the Vote On Election Day: Back in August we explained that people will not show up to vote for Hillary. That is exactly what happened and we have the proof of this prediction below.
The problem with polls is enormous. You have selection bias as many people are not going to be watching much Cable anymore and you’re asking about their opinion. Opinions are not action. Action is what leads to results. If we ask people about the value of their smartphones or their TV subscription they will say “it’s over priced for the value”… Yet they renew every single year. Sometimes even paying more than they did before!
You could easily get a sense that people were emotionally fired up to vote for the Donald and the Clinton vote was more passive “better than the alternative” type of polling. It’s just not enough to move the needle.
6) Do Your Research: Instead of posting on Facebook and Twitter, one should spend the next 100 days and figure out exactly how to *profit* off of this change. It will be difficult to determine how far he will go with each policy… But… There is money to be made. We may announce a few predictions if people are interested, however, that is the first thing that everyone should be doing. Forget about the celebrations (we already had those) and get ready to put your nose down into some company filings. You’ll have to track down the exact companies that will benefit and the ones that will not. It is not enough to say “XYZ” sector will benefit. This is herd mentality as all the companies will unlikely benefit. As with any policy changes, a select few will see outsized positive gains while other companies will see minimal benefits causing a correction in their value as expectations did not live up to reality.
7) Use the Election to Build Rapport: Who cares who you voted for. Yep. We are telling you to put that aside. If you voted for Trump great, if you voted for Clinton great. *It does not matter*
What does matter? Who you “say” you voted for to each individual person. The saying is that you never talk about politics but this is simply foolish. The key is to figure out who the person voted for and once that is dialed in you just agree! It doesn’t matter because if they are going to be a huge customer or client of yours it makes no sense to fight them. Re-read the first part and remember that people are entirely driven by feelings.
“Smile, Nod and Agree”
Once you find out who they are positive on, try to spin it. If they are positive on Clinton, then you try to talk about how the president has less control than everyone believes and that you can’t believe the Electoral College exists. If they are positive Trump, explain that he is not a racist and he won’t burn down the country like the rioters who are currently burning down the country.
Finally, if this is not business/money/client related, feel free to troll all the Clinton supporters if you were positive on Trump for the laughs. Just remember. If its related to something that matters (business) then you should find the candidate and agree. *You never win when fighting with a client. NEVER*
This is extremely important so we’ll add a second way to remember these rules. You will never change a person’s opinion on politics. Don’t talk or have a conversation with someone to change their mind, you’re wasting your time. Even if it works, the amount of effort it takes is simply not worth it.
8) Question the Source of Information: Well we are not doing ourselves any favors since we’re primarily anonymous although Mike Cernovich and Sam both know us in real life. That aside… It was clear that the Media was in the tank for Hillary Clinton.
If the entire mainstream media was in the tank for Clinton… What are some other items that they may be lying about. It is clear that they were not unbiased so there must be additional biases within those same walls.
Take stock of all the items you believe to be true. Back track. Where did this belief or information come from? Did it come from your college professor who has his entire paycheck come from the good old government? Did it come from consensus building from mainstream information? Did it come from a large corporation? Did it come from some anonymous douches on Wall Street Playboys? Question it all.
Instead of assuming that something is true, take action to find out if it is true and build your information data bases in this fashion. It is much smarter to go back to the well that didn’t poison you than to assume someone will “change”. They typically don’t.
Anywho, this was a fun experiment and even more fun with all the parties and money. Most importantly the money. We are working on our book beginning December 1 and as usual no questions but we will hold a Q&A within the next couple of weeks (email subscribers will be alerted) and the Q&A will be on twitter so be sure to follow us there!
Remain Dialed In: By being laser focused on things that matter it is quite easy to to predict game changing moves such as the presidency. One of the things everyone should be focused on is their net worth and we can recommend Personal Capital. The Company offers *free* software tools with the following four key features: 1) ability to avoid losing money by tracking all fees associated with an investment product allowing you to choose the best possible fund for your future, 2) portfolio analysis where your risk profile is stacked up against your current age and retirement goals, 3) in addition to these free tools, you can also track your net worth and path to becoming a millionaire and 4) when you hit $100K in networth you’ll receive a free one time consultation with an investment professional at Personal Capital. After linking up all of your accounts you’ll be able to sit back and watch as your net worth goes up and your fees remain minimal over the next several years. We strongly believe that Personal Capital is the premier personal finance software tool when compared to its competitors such as Mint. If you’re looking to avoid personal financial collapse, it makes sense to track everything in one place for *free*.