Soo… We Were Right. No Surprise!

We predicted that Donald Trump would win the presidency and here we are. Over a year ago we laid out large sums of money into online gambling websites and in addition, leading up to the election, shorted the hell out of the Mexican Stock market.

While we have nothing against Mexico or its people, in fact we love some of their cities, the writing was on the wall (double entendre on purpose). This election cycle has proven once again that people are not rational creatures, emotion drives all decision making and you will incur a financial gain if you can remain unemotional when it comes to money. We’ll highlight a few items.
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1) Free Dinner from Financial Samurai: Our friend Sam took the stance that people were rational creatures and we bet a dinner as seen from the below exchange. Our quick Twitter interaction summarizes the difference in opinion quite simply really (back in December):

Interaction

There should be no doubt in anyone’s mind after this election that people are not rational. If there is, we suggest a review of the entire election and the turning points which were all based on emotion. We haven’t collected our dinner yet but we will soon and he has graciously paid the $100 wagers to the individuals in our comments section.

Everyone who bet against the Donald is taking that L train for commuting purposes at this point.

2) Unfolded as Expected: For those that were following our Twitter handle, we sporadically made comments around the election and noted that Trump would take a large hit in October followed by a win in November. That is exactly what happened. The reason why? Elections are emotional. Each camp has their own special guns set up for the end and we know there would be a whopper coming. The problem was simply in the timing of the information, too early and too much time for Trump to recover (he did).

The two parties (Trump and Clinton) both know that the election had nothing to do with rational thought. They had their game plan and bullets, however, Trump is simply too crafty.

3) We Let Others Do the Work: As we stated in our original post, from a financial perspective we did not care who wins. While this sounds like an oxy moron since we wagered a large sum of money on his election, we were talking in broader strokes. The presidency does not determine a person’s ability to succeed. YOU determine YOUR ability to succeed.

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We didn’t bother getting too involved in the election, we sat back and let the heavily involved run the show. As long as we got our money that is all that really mattered.

Importantly, while this may feel like a “complete overhaul” of the system, we think that would be a stretch. Yes it will have an impact on our culture over the next 4 (we think 8) years, but the same winners will be the same winners. As the saying goes “If we took all the money in the world and divided it equally, the same people would become rich over the next 100 year cycle”. 

To reiterate, if you believe you have a winner, you always let others do the work so you can focus on more important tasks. The stage has been set so its time to move on.

4) Being Humble is for Idiots: You heard it here first. Wall Street Playboys is saying that humility does not lead to money. Don’t be humble when you’re trying to *Market Yourself*. The only time you should be humble is when you are in the company of someone largely superior to yourself. You get no brownie points for insulting clients or a person with more weight than yourself.

With that one caveat out of the way, being humble will cause you to *lose* money. If you want a good example look at professional sports. The ones who are louder and more exciting generate more attention, more endorsements and a higher percentage of people in the seats (filling the stadium). If you’re attempting to get attention, being silent and nodding your head is not going to get you anywhere. You need to create noise, don’t be shy. You can always temper it down when the situation changes.

5) We Even Predicted the Vote On Election Day: Back in August we explained that people will not show up to vote for Hillary. That is exactly what happened and we have the proof of this prediction below.

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The problem with polls is enormous. You have selection bias as many people are not going to be watching much Cable anymore and you’re asking about their opinion. Opinions are not action. Action is what leads to results. If we ask people about the value of their smartphones or their TV subscription they will say “it’s over priced for the value”… Yet they renew every single year. Sometimes even paying more than they did before!

You could easily get a sense that people were emotionally fired up to vote for the Donald and the Clinton vote was more passive “better than the alternative” type of polling. It’s just not enough to move the needle.

6) Do Your Research: Instead of posting on Facebook and Twitter, one should spend the next 100 days and figure out exactly how to *profit* off of this change. It will be difficult to determine how far he will go with each policy… But… There is money to be made. We may announce a few predictions if people are interested, however, that is the first thing that everyone should be doing. Forget about the celebrations (we already had those) and get ready to put your nose down into some company filings. You’ll have to track down the exact companies that will benefit and the ones that will not. It is not enough to say “XYZ” sector will benefit. This is herd mentality as all the companies will unlikely benefit. As with any policy changes, a select few will see outsized positive gains while other companies will see minimal benefits causing a correction in their value as expectations did not live up to reality.

7) Use the Election to Build Rapport: Who cares who you voted for. Yep. We are telling you to put that aside. If you voted for Trump great, if you voted for Clinton great. *It does not matter*

What does matter? Who you “say” you voted for to each individual person. The saying is that you never talk about politics but this is simply foolish. The key is to figure out who the person voted for and once that is dialed in you just agree! It doesn’t matter because if they are going to be a huge customer or client of yours it makes no sense to fight them. Re-read the first part and remember that people are entirely driven by feelings.

“Smile, Nod and Agree”

Once you find out who they are positive on, try to spin it. If they are positive on Clinton, then you try to talk about how the president has less control than everyone believes and that you can’t believe the Electoral College exists. If they are positive Trump, explain that he is not a racist and he won’t burn down the country like the rioters who are currently burning down the country.

Finally, if this is not business/money/client related, feel free to troll all the Clinton supporters if you were positive on Trump for the laughs. Just remember. If its related to something that matters (business) then you should find the candidate and agree. *You never win when fighting with a client. NEVER*

This is extremely important so we’ll add a second way to remember these rules. You will never change a person’s opinion on politics. Don’t talk or have a conversation with someone to change their mind, you’re wasting your time. Even if it works, the amount of effort it takes is simply not worth it.

8) Question the Source of Information: Well we are not doing ourselves any favors since we’re primarily anonymous although Mike Cernovich and Sam both know us in real life. That aside… It was clear that the Media was in the tank for Hillary Clinton.

If the entire mainstream media was in the tank for Clinton… What are some other items that they may be lying about. It is clear that they were not unbiased so there must be additional biases within those same walls.

Take stock of all the items you believe to be true. Back track. Where did this belief or information come from? Did it come from your college professor who has his entire paycheck come from the good old government? Did it come from consensus building from mainstream information? Did it come from a large corporation? Did it come from some anonymous douches on Wall Street Playboys? Question it all.

Instead of assuming that something is true, take action to find out if it is true and build your information data bases in this fashion. It is much smarter to go back to the well that didn’t poison you than to assume someone will “change”. They typically don’t.

Anywho, this was a fun experiment and even more fun with all the parties and money. Most importantly the money. We are working on our book beginning December 1 and as usual no questions but we will hold a Q&A within the next couple of weeks (email subscribers will be alerted) and the Q&A will be on twitter so be sure to follow us there! 

Happy Trumpening.

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Remain Dialed In: By being laser focused on things that matter it is quite easy to to predict game changing moves such as the presidency. One of the things everyone should be focused on is their net worth and we can recommend Personal Capital. The Company offers *free* software tools with the following four key features: 1) ability to avoid losing money by tracking all fees associated with an investment product allowing you to choose the best possible fund for your future, 2) portfolio analysis where your risk profile is stacked up against your current age and retirement goals, 3) in addition to these free tools, you can also track your net worth and path to becoming a millionaire and 4) when you hit $100K in networth you’ll receive a free one time consultation with an investment professional at Personal Capital. After linking up all of your accounts you’ll be able to sit back and watch as your net worth goes up and your fees remain minimal over the next several years. We strongly believe that Personal Capital is the premier personal finance software tool when compared to its competitors such as Mint. If you’re looking to avoid personal financial collapse, it makes sense to track everything in one place for *free*.

Comments

  1. YM says

    While you didn’t care who won, bet you guys aren’t disappointed about the potential tax benefits for S Corp Owners.

    However – most interesting perspective of the article was that being humble does not lead to success. Especially when you advocate playing dumb. Know you don’t take questions but would be interested in hearing some expansion on this.

    Last – Everyone knows the L train is the worst in Manhattan.

    • Anonymous says

      Find out if the person matters or not (most won’t).
      Play dump with who doesn’t matter.
      Market yourself with pride to people who matter.

  2. says

    extremely excited to see what a politician who is not bought and paid for can do with the executive office in washington! cheers to you guys in winning your bets, and here’s to a successful presidency and making america great again.

  3. says

    I am extremely disappointed we did not have the rational sense to elect Hillary Clinton. Hillary is a woman and I felt we needed to give women and minorities, including blacks a serious role model in our country.

    Thankfully, this is now happening on Wall Street boardrooms and corporate boardrooms and analyst intakes as a result of stringent and unyielding enforcement of diversity initiatives.

    Secondly, issues concerning the economy like trade pale into insignificance as pertaining to the threat of Russia with its nuclear weapons and cyber threat to our national security and intelligence. We should be vigilant about guarding national security at all times and I feel Mr Trump’s positions of peace on Russia, Syria, Libya, East Africa, Palestine, and so on are a danger to national security.

    Finally, I would like to thank Wall Street for all their donations to Hillary’s campaign this cycle. It is enlightening to know that there remain rational actors in our political system who are prepared to ‘put their money where their mouth is’, as mandated by our Supreme Court nominees, whose reading of the constitution keeping in mind offshore bank accounts and child sex ring access is spot. on.

    Many thanks for your advice throughout the year.

    Sincerestly,
    Hillary Clinton

  4. says

    Importantly, while this may feel like a “complete overhaul” of the system, we think that would be a stretch. Yes it will have an impact on our culture over the next 4 (we think 8) years, but the same winners will be the same winners. As the saying goes “If we took all the money in the world and divided it equally, the same people would become rich over the next 100 year cycle”.

    BOOM.

    Nailed it so hard. Actually, funny thing a few days ago, I posted an article on my blog titled “Presidential Election 2016: Why It’s None of Your Business” where I concluded with this excerpt:

    “Your political beliefs are not important. My political beliefs are not important either.

    Not to me, not to your friends, but most importantly not to you. Your vote and your opinion on the election has only a tiny impact on your life (if any).

    Whether it’s Trump on the wheel or Clinton or myself, bottom-line is, this will change nothing in your life. Remember the betas on the tribe above. Low-rank individuals always get the worst piece of the game no matter who their leader is.

    So unless you’re a billionaire and you have first level connections with the president, I’d highly recommend that you invest your time in yourself instead of commenting on social media about who won (nobody cares about these pointless and emotional comments anyway).”

    Thanks for the post guys, made me corelate, keep it up!

  5. Playing Catch Up says

    I predicted that Trump would win a while back too, all you really needed was to play around with this neat little tool on 538 and see that if he did well with working class whites, he was going to be president.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

    All that being said, as I progress into my 20s, I start to question a lot of life advice I get about getting older and how to go about life. The life advice about social life, friends, women, and career. Coming to that realization about how much the advice I get can make or ruin my future actually made me that much more attention the source.

    What should a guy in his 20s be doing socially anyways and should he even bother.

    What moves does a guy in his 20s need to make for his career.

    What moves doe a guy in his 20s need to make to have a fulfilling life.

    Are my expectations about what the future brings if I play my cards right a bit unrealistic (models and bottles, powerful friends, great parties, etc.).

    I am not asking you guys these but asking yourself these questions, seeing what the sources have to say, and really evaluating those sources can really give you good training. When the advice is something that can have a big impact on you, you really start paying attention the sources if you are smart.

  6. David Nystrom says

    I’d like to report that Financial Samurai is a man of his word–I received my winnings this weekend. Good man. Incidentally I was highly impressed by his e-mail vacation responder and use of Google Plus to promote his blog posts with his e-mail. Great marketing that I am learning from.

    While I fully agree with the Wall Street Playboys “EMOTION = SALES” hypothesis let’s not forget that Trump did in fact have a rational play as well. Late breaking voters and voters who loathed both candidates mostly broke for Trump because of policy. The media kept claiming Trump had no policy, but Middle America heard his nationalist policy proposals loud and clear all year.

    I am a Midwesterner and my part of the country has been hammered hard in the past 25 years by import competition–and heroin coming out Mexico. The Midwest and the Northeast delivered huge surges for Trump, and his great personality and sales skills are not the only reason. Trump in fact underperformed in the service, technology, aerospace, and transportation oriented West. He lost Nevada and Colorado by more than the polls, and performed only even in Arizona despite his strong anti-immigration message.

    I was telling anyone who would listen that the working man between Pittsburgh and Green Bay would decide this election, and that’s exactly what happened. And good for them–they deserve a win for once.

    Look for Trump to run up the score in 2020 on the back of strong economic gains for Americans of all classes and–finally–PEACE. The educated white voters who didn’t show up for Trump will be on his side four years from now which will deliver YUGE landslide.

    Looking for sectors that will do well under Trump? Coal and steel stocks nearly *doubled* after his victory. Dan Dimicco, former CEO of Nucor, is running the Office of Trade Representative’s transition team. Wilbur Ross co-authored the economic plan and may be our next Secretary of Commerce. Get long US Steel, Nucor, Peabody, Goodyear, etc. Get the fuck out of bonds if you haven’t done so already.

  7. Uk Anon says

    How I explain why Trump won to others in the UK.

    “What’s Trumps slogan?”, “make America great again?”,”yes, now what’s Hilary’s?”,” Dunno????”. (If you live outside the states try it)

    He delivered his campaign/message so well the world knew his mission.

  8. RE Guy says

    “Did it come from some anonymous douches on Wall Street Playboys?” – I got a chuckle out of his. I thought you said “Don’t be humble”?

    For the humble part, I’d say be humble in private, to yourself, be honest about your shortcomings. But assume for the most part that others will use your weaknesses or lack of confidence against you, and thus only be humble in the presence of others you trust. Another exception, when you screw up undeniably in reality and it’s impossible to spin without first a token admission (and then get to spinning, probably with an appeal to motivation/values) e.g. “Yes it is bad we lost the account, but I believed I was following company value x.” and guide the process to a better mutual understanding; and I would extend this to “Person whom you value a relationship with” from “Clients or person who has more weight” (and if you don’t value the relationship, feel free to troll, which besides the lolz helps develop the skills in generating and handling attention).

    I’d also agree it’s a better discipline to act in ways that command attention and be comfortable both being the center of positive attention and mitigating the results of negative attention, as opposed to being generally shy and then having to try and speak up at a key moment. You might even say that was part of Trump vs. “Low Energy” Jeb.

    I’d like to hear more things the media is biased about, that would be an interesting discussion. Off the top of my head, everyone should go to college, one day you’ll meet the partner of your dreams you should marry them, work hard for someone else at something you’re passionate about and one day you can retire at 65+, everyone’s feelings and opinions are important and deserve equal space, you won’t be able to bang 18 year olds when you’re 36 and if you do that’s creepy, women should try and lock down a rich guy (no prenup) with the tacit understanding that if she’s ever unhappy she can exit with a golden parachute etc.

    • Playing Catch Up says

      “you won’t be able to bang 18 year olds when you’re 36 and if you do that’s creepy”

      A lot of red pill sites have me believing that’s normal…….

  9. Young Gun says

    So I’m in college (keeping debt to a sweet, sweet zero) and want to start making cash on the side. I’m not sure what to do though, as I’m still without a degree and can only do two days a week so career-building jobs are kinda out of the equation. What part-time work is there available to those looking to build sales skills?

    PS: thanks so much for this blog! It codifies and distills a lot of sense into a really simple format and has saved this sorry soul from a life of mediocrity! (I used to be a philosophy major)

    • Jack says

      Work at a part time sales job with uncapped commission. Focus on learning and getting better, the experience you gain will be worthwhile and you should be able to build up a bit of nice liquid cash.

  10. Anon1 says

    “The ones who are louder and more exciting generate more attention, more endorsements and a higher percentage of people in the seats (filling the stadium).”

    Yup very true, thats why i find it funny when other ufc fighters whine at Mcgregor for taking the initiative when they don’t.

    I like how he thinks, how he knows that the fight game is a short one where you brain turns to mush, and he wants to move up to ownership by leveraging his strengths [attention/ and filling up seats] when he’s in a position to do so. I have no doubt he impregnated his girl specifically so he could use that as excuse/leverage [will he retire/wont he] in calling out the new owners.

    his video non-apology was hilarious.

    Anyways yes WSP was 100% on the money as per usual, looking forward to your book release as well

  11. WolfGang says

    What’s a good betting site to bet on things like election outcomes. I did a Google search & it seems a lot of em are outside the USA.

    Need a secure, reputable site.

  12. says

    I’m back from my business retreat on December 17th. Steak dinner at Harris Steakhouse after! Just let me know when you guys are free.

    With banks EN FUEGO post election, surely bonuses this year can’t be as bad as the -20% you were talking about no??

    Sam

  13. ReasonFromFirstPrinciples says

    24 years old.

    Just truly hit me how much time I have wasted (http://wallstreetplayboys.com/uncovering-the-truth/). You’re right – I’m in pain.

    No excuses. No one forced me to.

    All I can do now is accept that I cannot change it. I can however change what I choose to do with my time going forward and be grateful that I am lucky enough to be aware of the value of my time relatively early in life.

    Now… Back to work.

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