Lets frame this up. First, we are not the original predictors, Scott Adams (Dilbert Cartoonist) and Mike Cernovich (personal friend) were the original people to make this call (Perhaps a few more we are unaware of). Second, this article should *not* be popular with Trump supporters because it is coming from a Wall Street blog (Branding 101 and why Mitt Romney failed). Third, from a financial perspective we do not care who wins, we are evaluating his candidacy solely from a *Branding* and *Sales* perspective. The only skills you need in life to get rich and live a life you could only dream of.
General Take On Politics
We have already learned more about sales from the debates, Trump’s campaign and his rhetoric than any other election in history. We will give you a taste in this post.
That is the *only* reason we are involved. Nothing in this article will talk about his *ability* to do the job.
To reiterate. We do not care who wins as it won’t impact us at all. Politics is one of the only times where “regular people” get a chance to have equal say as a successful person. So. No. We will not post a single politics related article (recent polls for example) unless it has tangible value.
Making This Prediction a Fun Game
We are certainly putting our money where our mouths are and took a fun bet with our friend Sam who is predicting a Hillary election. Our quick Twitter interaction summarizes the difference in opinion quite simply really. Here it is:
In short, do you believe people are rational creatures? Do you work in Sales? You know the answer. They are not. Sales is the transfer of emotion.
In fact, if humans were rational and logical… Trump’s Casino Empire would not exist would it? It wouldn’t.
With the basic premise out of the way… that people will vote based on how they feel rather than rational thought, lets go through his ability to sell. In short, he has a tremendous ability to sell.
President Trump’s *Branding* Campaign History
“I’m not using the lobbyists. I’m not using donors. I don’t care. I’m really rich” – Trump (June 2015)
This is probably the first we all really heard of Donald Trump (running for President that is). He throws out three clear and concise punches and leaves you with an enormous negative. Why? He left you with the negative so the mainstream media could run out with a headline making him appear to be a brute and an elitist.
A fantastic trap wasn’t it?
The media expected the following: He’s claiming to be super rich! He is exactly like Mitt Romney who was also super rich! This is the tactic that tanked his presidency now Donald Trump is done!
Instead they got the following: Unlike Mitt Romney, I do not need *lobbyists* or *donors*. He anchored his previous sentence on those words for a reason. Instead of being branded as a rich elitist his rhetoric comes across as a blue collar guy who doesn’t care about politicians. Which is why we saw the following as his second tactic.
“I’m so tired of this politically correct crap” – Trump (September 2015)
All of our readers are smart so you see exactly what just happened here. After letting the “I’m really rich fiasco” run its course he *doubles down* and now uses layman’s language to 1) prove he is not going to speak like a politician (you were already thinking of politicians when you saw lobbyist and donor) and 2) he’s branding himself as *not a politician*.
Our friend Sam disagrees with this being a good idea, his quote is right here: “To win, candidates really need to be more political by kissing everybody’s ass. Donald suffers the same disease as Mitt Romney. Because they are so rich, they just seem too arrogant to understand the math necessary to win a majority” (no we’re not attacking Sam just showing our difference in how this is playing out).
We will take the opposite view and say if he acts like a politician… his following will fall off a cliff just like a terrible Stock.
You know… like Macys.
Funny enough, you were thinking of Macy’s right when you saw the word stock and that is not a coincidence!
Jeb Destroys His Own Candidacy With an Intern… Oh Politicians and Their “Interns” (October 2015)
While no one really knows exactly why Jeb has fallen off a cliff. Besides the fact that he is weak, a terrible presenter and a beggar. But. We’ll take a stab at the *event*.
It is when the media and the GOP (whoever you want to blame for this embarrassment) attempted to plant an intern into a Trump event.
Now you’re in big trouble.
We now know with certainty that the media ran out with a false narrative. Now you’ve woken up every single person with a social media addiction to scrub any and *every* story on Donald Trump since we know… again… with certainty… someone is attempting to dishonestly discredit him. In our view, that was the kill shot.
There was an attempt to double down on this strategy with a “Hitler” plant at another event, which has done nothing but backfire… Again.
Temporary Ban on All Muslims (December 2015)
Donald Trump stock gaps up and goes parabolic settling at ~40% of national polls and clear #1 leader.
Why? Donald Trump rises up as the only candidate to come up with an extreme solution to a real problem. We do have a problem. No one understands why we are being attacked: 1) September 11th was a Muslim based attack not Iraq based which Trump was against, 2) Boston Bombings, 3) Paris attacks and 4) San Bernardino.
The best part about this fiasco was *not* the headline. The headline was easy click bait for Mr. Trump as the media ran with “Ban All Muslims” instead of the actual message of *Temporary* ban on all Muslims which gave him several hours of air time to explain. A crystal clear tactic. Create hype. Lead.
“You’re a Tough Guy Jeb!.. Let’s see I’m at 42 and you’re at 3.” (December – The Final Debate)
Is it a coincidence that Donald Trump’s best showing in the debates were on the first day and the last day? Of course not. While he cannot receive a script in advance, it was clear he wanted one last push. His comments went viral.
Summary: Given that these were the five most impactful pieces of the campaign (opinion) we now have the following as his marketing strategy: 1) I am not a politician, 2) I will not take corporate money because I do not need it but you’re happy to join my cause *personally*, 3) the Media is out to slander me and we have proof with plants at my events, 4) I am willing to fight back for our country – we didn’t even mention El Chapo! and 5) I’m here to win and you can see it in my numbers as we begin 2016.
Nitty Gritty Sales Specific
He isn’t even trying but is out performing.
Everything written above this line was with regards to *branding*. Lets switch to his sales tactics by first looking at the most useless part of his campaign. His donation section.
Remember, Donald J. Trump does not need a penny. He has spent the least amount of money out of any politician and is still winning. If he is going to put a low amount of effort into anything it is going to be fund raising. We are only going to highlight a few points on the page to avoid giving out more information on why the page is good.
Anchoring: He is anchoring the reader to $2,700. Many will read this page and say hmm the middle number is $250. It is not that simple. He has anchored to $2,700 with the phrase “By law the maximum amount an individual may contribute is $2,700.”
Did anyone know that was the maximum? Honestly we did not (again we don’t care about politics). And. As soon as you’re thinking about that number your anchor is now as high as it can possibly be.
Recurring Payments: Make no mistake. Donald Trump knows the best way to get a person more dedicated to his cause is through a monthly contribution. Simple psychology. The more people give you… the more committed to your cause they will become (human nature). In addition, notice something extremely subtle. The phrasing is “Make this a monthly contribution”. Again highlighting the commitment.
No Begging: Again. This is a page he does not care about at all… yet it is done correctly. This page only exists to get people mentally committed to his campaign since he does not need a couple million dollars.
His phrasing is as follows:
“By law the maximum amount an individual may contribute is $2,700” (Select amount) “Make this a monthly contribution”.
Compared to his competitors:
“Chip in to stand with Hillary in 2016” (select amount on three different clicks) “Please make this a recurring contribution.”
All of you affiliate marketers can stop laughing now. Seriously, you can stop. We know you’re laughing and we’re laughing with you. Anyone who makes at least 4 figures a day online (we’re drawing the line there) knows this is a material error and is sending the reader away from the page. By asking a person to “chip in” and going with “please” you’re going after the lowest of the lowest common denominator and you’re generating less money.
Don’t worry… Jeb is using the “chip in for a dollar” language as well.
Incredible Voice Control
We wish we could find a better word, but we’ll just use one of his. Tremendous. He has a tremendous ability to control the tone and cadence of his voice. We first recognized this ability in full force on Jimmy Kimmel when asked tough questions about the Muslim statements. The best part? People believe he is not speaking this way on purpose. It is being done with a purpose. He even takes *less* time to “temporarily” say the word “temporary”! (Ie: emphasizing the feeling of the word).
For fun, lets take a look at his latest video thanking his supporters into the New Year. We suggest opening a separate browser.
Here is the message:
“I want to wish everybody, a very very happy new year. Hopefully 2016, will be an unbelievably successful one. For our Country, for yourselves, for your family and thank you very much for all of the tremendous support that I have received.”
We are sure you caught it. What you’ve read does not match what you’ve actually heard because it looks like a boring message with a run on sentence to close. Here is what really happened.
*****Rat, tat, tat, tat, tat*****
(Pause, the word TRUMP is erased in an even faster five paced motion, five again however)
“I want to wish everybody a very very happy new year.”
(this sentence is done in a classic rainbow with the peak word being the second very easing into the new year statement)
“Hopefully, two thousand and sixteen. Will be an unbelievably… successful one.”
(He spells out and elongates the word 2016 to give the viewer something to look forward to by how he *says* it followed by a single strong hand gesture to explain a successful *one*)
“For our Country. For Yourselves. For your Family.” (pause)
(Three step process: he talks about the three things you care about the most in ascending order, you kind of care about the Country, you certainly care about Yourself and you absolutely care about your Family)
“and Thank you very much for all of the tremendous support… that I have received.”
(the final delivery will also be missed, he has emphasized only three words and all you will remember is “very tremendous reception” – not the word received)
*****TRUMP Make America Great Again******
An entirely different feeling going through the second run through. Now, certainly it is laughable to think that this is going to make or break his campaign. We certainly have no clue if he will actually win, we are simply going through his sales techniques and are banking on his ability to *out sell* the other candidates.
We did an extremely small amount of work on analyzing his sales technique (maybe we will do another post if there is interest solely in his wording and salesmanship) but here’s the takeaway.
– Trump is not a politician. If he goes the political route we see him losing ground (a lot of it as he will appear weak)
– The media is out to slander him, the entire nation has proof (intern plants) and now the main weapon is being devalued in front of our very eyes
– He is not going to take money from anything related to politics (doubling down on number 1)
– He is going to use *mass production and marketing* he will not need to pay for air time as the media will attempt to slander him (do not need to spend on distribution)
– If there is a financial crisis or a time of war, we believe he will run away with the election as it is crystal clear that he is the most charismatic candidate and the most hard nosed on the docket
Basic predictions going forward? We see him losing the Iowa Caucus, we see him winning the GOP, we see him going after Hillary’s health, criminal actions and the actions of her husband (branding her as weak and unable to stand up for herself).
Will we be dead wrong? Who knows. But. That is why the claim is bold. We’re expecting this to be the result after all.